The Director General of the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), Edward Muriuki,has linked the unusual rains witnessed in February to the Madden-Julian Oscillation. This tropical weather phenomenon, which moves eastward around the globe, significantly impacts rainfall patterns in tropical regions like Kenya.
Muriuki explained that the recent off-season rains in the country were a direct result of this tropical disturbance. “In the past two weeks, we have experienced some off-season rains caused by a tropical disturbance known as Madden-Julian Oscillation,” Muriuki said during a Citizen TV interview on March 2.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation, discovered in 1971 by scientists, has two primary phases. One phase suppresses rainfall, while the other enhances it. Muriuki noted that in the past two weeks, the oscillation has enhanced Kenya’s rainfall.
Transitioning into Long Rains Season
Muriuki confirmed that Kenya is now transitioning into the long rains season, which typically begins in mid-March. Despite the recent off-season rains, the country is preparing for more widespread rainfall, which is expected from March to April. “These rains were technically off-season, but they signal the start of the long rains,” he said.
The long rains season in Kenya generally lasts from March to May. Muriuki explained that the country experiences two primary rainy seasons annually: the long rains and the short rains, which occur between October and December. He added that the March to May season is typically the most significant for rainfall in the country.
The Role of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
Muriuki clarified that rainfall patterns in Kenya are influenced largely by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This belt of low pressure shifts north and south in line with the position of the sun, and its movement plays a crucial role in determining the timing and intensity of rainfall across the country.
The ITCZ is responsible for bringing rain to tropical regions during specific times of the year. As the country enters the long rains season, the movement of this zone will bring the expected widespread rainfall. Muriuki emphasized that understanding the ITCZ’s impact is crucial for predicting rainfall patterns.
Warning for Heavy Rain and Flooding
Muriuki also warned of heavy rains expected in 22 counties starting on Tuesday. He said that these rains could lead to potential flooding, particularly in low-lying areas. Counties expected to experience heavy rainfall include Kisumu, Siaya, Busia, Migori, Homa Bay, Kisii, Nyamira, Kakamega, Bungoma, and Vihiga.
The Rift Valley region will also be affected, with counties such as Nakuru, Baringo, Kericho, and Bomet anticipating heavy rains. In the highlands east of the Rift Valley, areas like Nairobi, Kiambu, Nyeri, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, and Meru are also at risk of heavy rainfall.
Call for Caution in Flood-Prone Areas
The KMD has advised residents in flood-prone areas to take necessary precautions. Muriuki said that local authorities should remain alert to the risks of flooding and be ready to respond swiftly. He emphasized that the heavy rains could cause disruptions in daily activities, particularly in areas already vulnerable to flooding.
The KMD has urged the public to stay informed through official weather updates. “We recommend that people in the affected areas take precautions, particularly if they live in flood-prone regions,” Muriuki said. The department is monitoring the situation closely and providing updates on the evolving weather conditions.
Preparing for the Peak of the Long Rains Season
Muriuki also spoke about the expected peak of the long rains season, which will occur in April. The rains are expected to subside by May, marking the end of the long rains period. He noted that, while the recent rains may have been unexpected, the long rains season is a natural occurrence for the country.
The KMD is working on improving forecasting systems to predict such weather patterns more accurately. The Madden-Julian Oscillation’s impact on Kenya’s weather highlights the importance of ongoing weather research and effective public communication. Muriuki concluded by emphasizing that the country must continue adapting to changing weather patterns as climate change affects global rainfall systems.
Kenya’s unusual rains in February were linked to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which had a direct effect on the country’s rainfall. As Kenya moves into the long rains season, KMD officials are forecasting more widespread rainfall from March to April. The department has warned of possible flooding in several counties and urged residents to prepare accordingly. With the support of advanced forecasting systems, KMD aims to keep the public informed and ensure that proper precautions are taken in vulnerable areas.
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