Raila’s Political Network Becomes Key Test for Ruto

Whether President William Ruto can convert Raila Odinga’s former political stronghold into votes for his 2027 re-election bid is emerging as a major political question.
Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda believes the political structures and support base built by the late former Prime Minister could give Ruto a major advantage at the next election.
Ojienda argued that Raila’s decades-long influence in Nyanza would remain important even after his death.
According to the senator, the political foundation created by Raila could ultimately contribute to Ruto securing another term in office.

Ojienda Predicts Ruto Victory

The Kisumu senator made the claim while discussing Raila’s political legacy and the relationship that developed between the former opposition leader and Ruto.
He said the cooperation between the two politicians before Raila’s death had created a political arrangement whose effects could extend into the 2027 election.
Ojienda also expressed confidence that Ruto would return to State House for a second term.
He suggested that the outcome was already becoming apparent, despite more than a year remaining before Kenyans vote.
That assessment remains a political prediction rather than an established election outcome.
The final result will depend on voter choices, political alliances and developments during the campaign period.

Nyanza Could Provide the Real Test

The political significance of Ojienda’s argument is particularly evident in Nyanza, where ODM continues to maintain a strong party presence.
An Infotrak survey conducted in June 2026 placed ODM’s party preference in the region at 50 per cent, compared with 13 per cent for UDA.
At the presidential level, however, Ruto recorded 40 per cent support in Nyanza, according to the same survey.
The findings therefore show that Ruto has made substantial gains in the region without demonstrating that ODM’s entire political base has shifted behind him.
Nationally, ODM and UDA were also closely matched, with 21 per cent and 22 per cent party preference respectively.
A further 29 per cent of respondents said they did not identify with any political party, highlighting the fluid nature of the political landscape.

Raila’s Support Base Remains Divided

The survey provides another indication of the challenge facing any attempt to transfer Raila’s support directly to Ruto.
Among ODM supporters nationally, Ruto attracted 38 per cent support, while Edwin Sifuna received 23 per cent and other responses accounted for the remainder.
The figures suggest that Ruto has established a significant presence among ODM supporters, but they do not show a complete movement of the party’s traditional supporters into his camp.
Infotrak itself cautions that regional political influence does not automatically translate into a full transfer of votes.

Ruto Leads Current Polling

The same Infotrak survey placed Ruto at 32 per cent nationally, ahead of Kalonzo Musyoka at 13 per cent, with Edwin Sifuna and Fred Matiang’i each recording 12 per cent.
Ruto’s strongest regional results were recorded in North Eastern at 59 per cent, Rift Valley at 46 per cent and Nyanza at 40 per cent.
However, the poll did not indicate that the 2027 election had already been decided.
Infotrak described the findings as a snapshot of voter opinion, with political alliances and the final field still capable of changing before the election.
The debate over Raila’s political legacy is therefore likely to remain central as the 2027 campaign takes shape.
For Ruto, the key question will be whether the cooperation established with Raila’s political camp can translate into sustained voter support across Nyanza and beyond.